The mode, or most count of the hottest number is 120, which happens 8.29% of the time.

This is possible because the probability of 121 observations is in both groups. This means that over 50% of time the most frequent number appeared 121 times or less, as well as 121 times or more.

The median count of the most frequent number is 121.

The mean, or average, count of the hottest number is 122.02.

Here is what the table above means in plain simple English. That said, following are the results of the count of the hottest number in millions of 3800-spin simulations. Hottest Number in 3,800 Spins of Double-Zero RouletteĪs a former actuary, I hate to use a layman's term like the 'hottest number,' but that is how gamblers talk so will go with that. I ran a simulation of over 1.3 trillion spins, counting how many times each number was hit, sorting the outcomes to find the most frequent number and how many times it was observed, and keeping a count of how many times the most frequent number in each simulation was seen. That said, if you track 3,800 outcomes in single-zero roulette, the average number of times any number will hit is 3800/38=100. However, you're on your own if you win a lot of money from said casino and try to leave with it.

Now, testing a 30-year-old hand-me-down wheel in a banana republic might be another story. Thus, testing a modern roulette for bias would be a total waste of time. In that article, Scoblete recommends taking a count of each outcome for 3,700 spins in single-zero roulette and 3,800 spins in double-zero roulette in the hunt for 'hot numbers.' Never mind that this would take about 100 hours to make this many observations, assuming the industry standard of 38 spins per hour.īefore going further, let me say that I strongly believe modern roulette wheels made by top brands like Cammegh are extremely precise and any bias would be minuscule compared to the house advantage. I got the idea for writing about this after reading an 888 online roulette article by Frank Scoblete entitled How to Take Advantage of Roulette Hot Spots.

Many worthless betting strategies and systems are based on belief in the Gambler's Fallacy.

An example of this fallacious thinking might be that if the number 23 hasn't been drawn in a 6-49 lottery the last 100 games, then it becomes more likely to be drawn during the next drawing. It is also equally incorrect that if an outcome has happened a disproportionate number of times lately, compared to statistical expectations, then it becomes overheated and less likely to occur the next time. The Gambler's Fallacy is the mistaken belief that if an independent event has not happened in a long time, then it becomes overdue and more likely.

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